The Effects of Salmon Abundance and Run Timing on the Performance of Management by Emergency Order

Project Description

We examine the effect of uncertainty in salmon run abundance and run timing on the ability of managers to achieve escapement goals using inseason regulation of fishery openings, using a detailed model of the arrival of salmon and operation of the fishery, the information available to managers, and managers' behavior. We supplement this management strategy evaluation by examining historical management performance from Bristol Bay, Alaska sockeye salmon fisheries. We find that uncertainty about run timing exacerbates the effects of uncertainty about salmon abundance. Early-arriving small runs and late-arriving large runs are especially problematic as they produce inseason data that mimics that of a typically-sized run with average run timing. Managers faced with an early-arriving small run will tend to overharvest the fish, particularly the earliest-arriving component. Managers faced with a late-arriving large run will tend to underharvest the fish, and harvest the latest arriving components at a higher rate. This differential harvest of early or late components of the run is important because it might reduce the genetic diversity of the stock, thus reducing its future productivity.

Project Funding

Amount: salary
Start Date: 2013-09-00
End Date: 2015-05-00


Research Team

Milo Adkison

Milo Adkison

Principal Investigator

Chair, Department of Fisheries; Professor


  • salmon biology and management
  • quantitative techniques
  • biometrics
  • population dynamics
  • modeling and Bayesian methods

Full Profile
Co-Principal Investigators

Curry Cunningham