A task force is examining whether the University of Alaska could give students a guaranteed tuition rate for at least their first four years.

The Board of Regents asked university officials to look into creating a "tuition promise" at its September meeting after approving a 7 percent tuition increase for next year. Details are still vague, but students would likely pay the same tuition rate for a given number of credit hours for at least their first four years of college.

Student government officials largely pushed for the idea after several years of double-digit tuition increases. But some regents and officials are wary, fearing dramatic hits to UA's budget.

"Nothing has been cast in stone," said Saichi Oba, assistant vice-president for student and enrollment services and head of the task force. "Nothing."

At the regents' meeting in December, though, President Mark Hamilton signaled he have some rules in mind. For example, he said, students taking advantage of the tuition promise would only have a locked-in rate for the number of credits they took their first semester freshman year.

"You understand, you can't have somebody lock in a rate with three credits and then next year spend it on 15," he said. "You're going to be limited to the number of credits you took."

Data is still being developed on the financial ramifications of a tuition promise. Hamilton spoke of "unknowables," but said the financial losses could be offset if students, trying to lock-in rates, enrolled in more classes.

"If this increases the number of student credit hours, if that fast start encourages them to continue, we could have increase in fares, increase in retention, and all this would offset these financial needs," he said. "We don't know that that will happen. These are expectations."

Tuition increases have agitated students after climbing 50 percent between 2002 and 2007, from $2,535 to $3,825. Because of student resistance, Hamilton said getting future 10 percent hikes through 2011 might be made easier if only freshmen were affected by each increase.

"So that is a way to get our tuition to where we think it probably ought to be and do it in a way where each successive class can have a pretty good deal for them," he said.

Task force meetings are scheduled up through March. The task force expects to complete an interim report for Hamilton in mid-February. A final report would be handed in end of March.

"We developed a timeline that takes into account the president's need to notify the university community by April 15 of the university's intentions for tuition," Oba said.

Hamilton would then have the option of recommending a tuition promise, most likely for the 2008-2009 academic year.

Any proposal would carry risk, however. Hamilton said the university can't go half-heartedly into creating guaranteed tuition rates, but has to commit if it's seen as viable.

"We're just going to have to go, here it is, we're going with it," he said.

The task force has scheduled meetings with higher education officials from Illinois, where public universities are required by law to offer tuition promises. Enrollment, retention and tuition data at UA will also be analyzed, though Hamilton said it might not be reliable.

"How useful it is is suspect," he said.

The concept is also controversial in some circles. Shirish Patil, a petroleum engineering professor and president of the Faculty Senate, told the senate in December that he was concerned that freshmen will overload themselves trying to lock-in cheap rates for as many credits as they can. This could cause dropout rates to increase, he said.

"My fear is that the students coming in will lock in the maximum number of credits available to freshmen," he said.

At their December meeting, several regents also expressed skepticism of approving locked-in tuition rates.

Outgoing Regent Joseph Usibelli Jr. said he was "just glad I'm not going to be here for this." It could create stress among the student body, with some students getting to pay less than others, he said.

"My gut is, I don't think it's a good idea," he said. "I don't think it matches reality. In the real world, prices go up every year."

Regent Chair Mary Hughes is also a trustee for the private college Willamette University, which had a tuition promise and then tried to revert back to a typical tuition regime. She said it didn't go well, with major student opposition.

"It was very difficult to get out and it proved not to be so successful," she said. "Even the students who got it every year came back to fight for the ones who aren't yet born."

Hughes said strict rules should be set requiring students wanting guaranteed rates to take 15 credits and to continue at UA for at least two years. After all, she said, it's hard to turn back.

"Once you're pregnant, you're pregnant," Hughes said.

Student Regent Jacob Gondek, who is on the task force, said it was at least good that UA is examining the issue.

"I really do appreciate the idea that at the very least the university is looking at it," he said. "I mean, I feel we do owe it to students, even if this thing doesn't go through, to show that we're at least looking