Actor: Leading

Leonardo DiCaprio

They'll say that DiCaprio has finally come into his own. The Academy loves it when heart-throbs become "serious actors." I mean, just look at Paul Newman or Tom Cruise (true, only nominated, but still). Jamie Foxx deserves this award, but I don't think he'll make it past the unstoppable Scorsese machine.

Actor: Supporting

Jamie Foxx

This will be Jamie Foxx's consolation for being cheated out of the Best Leading Actor category. While he was amazing in both "Ray" and "Collateral," he was less amazing in the latter. Nonetheless, Foxx completely stunned the world and stole the show this year – he deserves it.

Actress: Leading

Hilary Swank

Hilary Swank is an interesting case. I still know her best as "The Next Karate Kid." But, when she wants to be, Swank is a master at her craft. "Million Dollar Baby" is filmmaking at its pinnacle and Swank is responsible for much of the smooth sailing. In an interesting gamble, however, Imelda Staunton may swoop in and steal it for "Vera Drake."

Actress: Supporting

Cate Blanchett

Katharine Hepburn is the most awarded actress in the Academy's history. And Blanchett plays her with just the kind of grace and fumbling truth the voters love to see. They'll give it to Blanchett out of respect for Hepburn, but don't count out Laura Linney as a strong contender.

P.S. I don't like Natalie Portman. She's smelly and gross and I don't like her.

Animated Feature

The Incredibles

If the rules didn't forbid it, I believe that "The Incredibles" would be in the running for Best Picture. But this is not a perfect world and "The Incredibles" must instead be content with ruthlessly crushing its fellow competitors in the Animated Feature category. What are you even doing here, "Shark Tale?"

Cinematography

House of Flying Daggers

This is a tough call. "The Passion of the Christ" may make a surprise win here…you know, just to throw Gibson a bone. But one must never underestimate the public's admiration for pretty colors from a distant land. I'm not sure "House of Flying Daggers" best uses its cinematography to tell a story, but gosh darn it, it looks good.

Costume Design

Troy

I think, when it all boils down, getting period costumes that are not only accurate, but believable takes far more skill. However, people (especially the Academy) love flamboyance. And nothing's quite as flamboyant last year than seeing Brad Pitt in "traditional" Greek attire. If nothing else, "Troy" will get the Oscar for not making the whole thing look completely ridiculous.

Directing

The Aviator

Hands down, Scorsese. He's arguably the best working director today and has never won the Academy Award for Best Directing. This is the man who brought us "Raging Bull," "Goodfellas," and "Taxi Driver" and he has never won the award. Should I say that again? "The Aviator" is a fantastic film, but they'll give it to him more as a lifetime achievement commemoration.

Documentary Feature

Super Size Me

You have to remember that the Academy Awards, different from competitions like the Emmys or SAG Awards, is very much a popularity contest. The Academy is comprised of a few thousand people including actors, producers, and industry top dogs – so they pick what they like, not necessarily what's best. And as much as I hate to admit it, I don't think "Super Size Me" is the best documentary out there, but it's the most beloved.

Film Editing

Collateral

"Collateral" completely came out of left field last year. You see the first few minutes and you think, "Okay, this is going to be another slick action romp." But you, like me, would be wrong. Wrong and stupid.

One of the elements that definitively set "Collateral" apart was the expert editing. Hell, it makes L.A. look almost livable. Almost.

Makeup

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

Much like "Troy," the more exaggerated the better. Hey, I believed that James Caviezel was a man named Jesus. I believed that a real-life healthy man was an onscreen quadriplegic of less than austere appearances in "The Sea Inside." But these things just don't shout like a paid clown in fourteen kinds of iconic makeup.

Original Score

Finding Neverland

I believe this will be the only notice the Academy will give "Finding Neverland." Great movie, great cast, but it didn't stand out enough to have a presence this year. The music is masterful, being equally subtle and ornate as the scene dictates. The award should go to "The Village," but the higher ups tend to hate acoustic taste.

Best Picture

The Aviator

It's very pro-American at a time when the country very much needs healthy propaganda. "The Aviator" successfully shows the strengths and follies of one of the most influential men of the early 20th Century. The Academy may square off and give it to "Million Dollar Baby" for all the times they've screwed Clint Eastwood, but I doubt it.

Sound Editing

Spider-Man 2

Have you seen "Spider-Man 2?" Yeah, okay then. Shut up.

Visual Effects

Spider-Man 2

See previous entry.

Screenplay: Original

Eternal Sunshine on the Spotless Mind

Hollywood has fallen in love with the works of Charlie Kaufman. It seems he can do no wrong. "Being John Malkovich" and "Adaptation" are the perfect post-modern works for the future of neurotic storytelling. And "Sunshine" more than follows suit in its 2004 cult-hit incarnation.

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