As the campaign is coming to a climactic close and the country nears choosing its next figurehead/leader, I have witnessed many endorsements for people to vote on Election Day.  I think it is important not to go into this election blind, so I will be abrupt: your vote does not matter. Fairly pessimistic I must admit, however, I believe I am reasonably justified in my logic.

I grew up with the same stories as I'm sure many of you have: one vote makes a difference, in our democracy you should vote so that politicians can best represent the majority opinions... etc yadda blah.  I regret to inform you that we have learned many things incorrectly, either from poor teaching or learning, and continue to believe these lies and mistruths in the interest of maintaining our own egos (for instance, this is a republic, not a democracy).  My friends have attempted to argue my rationale in this subject by claiming that "you never know…" a decidedly speculative (and common) opinion on this fundamental facet of our nation.  It is my goal to point out some realities surrounding the upcoming election, although I may tread on some toes in the process.

A year before any public campaigning begins, elite members of the Democratic and Republican parties decide in relative privacy who to throw their support behind.  An acceptable metaphor would be: they decide which of their horses has the best chance to win the race, and then put all their money on him.  One of these two white, wealthy, old, mostly protestant males is then guaranteed a lifetime of health benefits, pension, free body guards, and, in the end, a spectacular funeral.  Of course they also have four years of hell from the media, unhappy citizens, and foreigners to look forward to.  From a crowd of 290 million potential leaders, our selection is quickly stripped down to three choices: some Republican, some Democrat, or nothing.

What about third party candidates?  Well, the last non-Democrat/Republican president was Millard Fillmore in 1853, who was a Whig.  I am fairly certain that the Whig party currently has as many members as the Jim Jones Cult, so they can be ruled out of any sequel performances any time soon.  Since there has been no new presidential party since before the Civil War, and because no party can come close to competing with a fraction of the wealth that the reigning two command, I am going to go with the numbers and argue that voting for anyone who lacks a (D) or (R) behind their names is equivalent to not voting.

Come November, the maps on the news will be entirely composed of blue and red splotches.  Citing more history, a majority of the states have not changed color for a long time.  Everyone knows California will be blue, Alaska will be red, and Florida will be purple.  Only 18 of our states are recognized as swing states, and those are the ones that get to hear all the nice speeches directly from the rival leaders.  Because of Alaska's voting history, and our love of guns, it is very unlikely we will turn blue, especially so soon after the sunset of the assault weapons ban.  The parties count on the voting history of states such as ours, and concentrate all their efforts on the 18 that matter.  The remaining 32 states are relatively insignificant because they have already been assessed.

Another factor against your vote is a dreadful beast called "statistics".  Statistics is the field of mathematics devoted to cleaning up dirty numbers and making them look pretty.  Have you ever counted 290 million of anything?  You will most assuredly miscount.  Every election in history has.  However, excepting in rare cases, the margin of error (that's statistics for how wrong you are) has not really been big enough to question the winner's claim to victory.  In the rare cases, the Supreme Court has become the tiebreaker.  The Supreme Court, like the Electoral College, is an unelected political body.

Most people recognize that the Electoral College is the true force electing the future President.  Upon cursory research on this student-less college, I discovered that I could not explain it very well.  It's in the wording, honest.  Essentially, each state has one Elector per Senator and Congressman they send to D.C.; therefore Alaska boasts three whole Electors!  There are 535 Electoral votes in the nation, so Alaska is a guaranteed half percent in the Republican pocket.  The Popular Vote in each state decides which Political Party may pick the Electors who themselves may choose which President and Vice President they want to determine our near future.  This is how 290 million people are sort-of represented by 535 people, and how our vote sort-of counts.  However, the Electors are in no way obligated to do what we want, so we should not be surprised when, 268 of them get together some day and elect Mickey Mouse president.

So, you don't matter, but you do count...vaguely.  That's not going to stop me from voting.

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