BEST PICTURE

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: Just to get it out of the way, "Return of the King" is a pretty wobbly movie on its own merits.  But the Academy won't be giving the Oscar to "Return of the King," they'll be giving it to the entirety of the trilogy.  Despite my gut urge to see "Mystic River" receive this honor, I have to admit that the quality of the "Lord of the Rings" series within the context of the incredibly short amount of time in which it was accomplished is a feat truly deserving of the Best Picture award.

DIRECTOR

Peter Jackson: While the Academy may pull some stunt and go with Clint Eastwood for his brutally unforgiving depiction of modern American relationships and mentalities, I feel that Peter Jackson will get the credit for the same reason "Return of the King" will get Best Picture; for the trilogy.  Jackson exhausted himself to the brink of meltdown in his effort to bring such a monumentally dense and mind-numbingly boring novel to the big screen.  Considering what a train wreck it could have been, Jackson deserves the Oscar.

ACTOR

Sean Penn: The Academy has never liked Sean Penn.  America has never really liked Sean Penn.  Nevertheless, Sean Penn's time has come.  Although nominated for "Mystic River," anyone who also witnessed "21 Grams" knows that 2003 was Sean Penn's year.  Don't get me wrong, Johnny Depp was good, Bill Murray was better, but neither of them holds a candle to what Penn has achieved this past year.

ACTRESS

Charlize Theron: It's a shame that people don't like to probe the mundane.  Naomi Watts more than deserves the Oscar this year for her excruciatingly realistic performance as a once drug addict house wife who endures the death of her husband and children.  I loved Theron in "Monster," and admittedly her win is warranted.  It's just a little painful to see the grossly sensationalistic win out over far more relevant characters.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Marcia Gay Harden: This one's the biggest toss-up.  Quite frankly, all of these performances are great and without the benefit of each actress receiving an ample amount of screen time to show their stuff, it all comes down to the most memorable, albeit short-lived, performance.  And, in my mind, that's exactly what Marcia Gay Harden delivered.

SUPPORINTG ACTOR

Benicio Del Toro: The supporting roles are always the hardest to predict.  Usually, the Academy uses them to show that they still appreciate the art of moviemaking.  While it would stand to reason that Tim Robbins get the award – certainly more people have seen "Mystic River" than "21 Grams" – I feel that the Academy will want to prove that they still know what constitutes a superior performance.  Baldwin also isn't too far from the mark due to the plain fact that Hollywood loves a comeback.  Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I'm banking on Del Toro. 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Les Invasions barbares: I loved "Lost in Translation," but the writing was never its strongest suit.  While "Lost in Translation" is the strongest contender in this category, "Les Invasions barbares" is abnormally quick and clever in a manner that should stand paramount in the eyes of those who have seen it.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Splendor: There cannot be enough praise for "American Splendor."  I have to say that I really don't care who succeeds in this category, "Splendor" is hands-down the winner as far as I'm concerned.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Finding Nemo: Honestly, I haven't seen "Les Triplettes de Belleville," so I don't know if this judgment is fair.  I'm not sure if it matters, though, seeing that in this climate of absolutely horrible animated offerings, "Finding Nemo" is amazing by the sheer act of not sucking.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World: Have you ever noticed how movies concerning sea fare make the subject look so impossibly exciting?  Well, it isn't, and Boyd's ability to frame and capture ocean life as anything more than bland drudgery shows that he is nothing less than a master at his craft.

COSTUME DESIGN

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: There are a lot of period pieces this year and "The Last Samurai" is a diligent second when it comes to authenticity.  But try making believable garb for a time and a place that never existed.  That's right, shut up then.

ORIGINAL SCORE

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: Are you getting tired of this rampant faux-winning?  Yeah, me too.  If only the movie didn't have it coming.

SOUND

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: Such a plethora of exotic and fantastical sounds makes even the most fictitious seem almost real.  Never before have I so appreciated the power that a movie's sound effects can have.

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Lord of the Rings:  The Return of the King: I don't think this one takes too much thinking.  The visuals in "Pirates" were amazing, but I have the feeling that "King" did the same amount of work four times over.

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